First off, bond yields peak eight months before the recession, on
average, and the S&P 500 peaks five months. This is the norm. Go back
to 2007, and the 10—year yield peaked in June and the S&P 500 peaked
in October, so not a bad call by the two markets. This time around, the
broad market peaked in late September which means we should be
looking at the timing of the next recession sometime in February/March.
And bond yields peaked in early November — which means July/August.
Bond yields peak eight months before the recession…
